The big ticket event of the day though is none other than the 2011 Men's NCAA Basketball Championship game. Charlie and I had a little discussion about who we thought would win and it led us to preview the game in a different light. I believe that the Butler Bulldogs will avenge last year's heartbreaking, buzzer-beating loss on Monday night. Charlie envisions Kemba and the Huskies playing the role of "East Coast Villain."
1) Ronald Nored vs. Kemba Walker: Ronald Nored didn't have glittering offensive statistics against VCU, but his defense is as good, if not better than his counterpart. In the VCU game, Brandon Rozzell was the victim of Nored's torrid defense. Not coincidentally, Nored virtually shadowed Rozzell as each player slated 29 minutes in the contest. Consider that Rozzell was the only other player on VCU besides Jamie Skeen to score in double-digits in the Kansas game, shooting 4 of 8 from the field including 4 of 7 from three. Nored chased Rozzell all over and never gave him an open look in the semifinal. Rozzell shot 1 of 5 from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc limiting him to two points and warranting Virginia police to issue a missing persons report. That being said, I think Nored can match Walker on the defensive side of the ball. Don't get me wrong, Walker will get his points, but he'll have to work harder than he has up to this point in the tournament. I see Walker taking a lot of shots with less success and forcing up some shots when it comes to crunch time. I think Walker goes 7-24 from the field, 2-8 from long range, and mirrors the last two games going 5 for 6 at the free throw line. That gives him 21 points, but means that he took 6 to 7 shots more this game rather than getting the ball to his teammates.
2) Player X: I also think Butler will win because they tend to spread the ball around more on offense. Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard are the unquestioned leading scorers for the Bulldogs. The key here is that in every game of the tournament besides the Pitt game, Butler had double figures from Mack, Howard, and Player X. Against ODU, it was Andrew Smith. When Mack struggled against Wisconsin, it was Shawn Vanzant that stepped up. With a Final Four berth on the line, Khyle Marshall came off the bench for Butler and contributed 10 points and 7 offensive rebounds. In the clash on Saturday against VCU, Shawn Vanzant again stepped up, but it was the 8 consecutive points from Zach Hahn that willed Butler during a crucial stretch of the game. I'll continue with the theme of being bold, even with the fear of looking like a amateur (which I am) and say that I expect Vanzant to be Player X for Butler on Monday with 13 points.
3) Brad Stevens: For all the experience that Jim Calhoun has in his vault, recent success sides with Stevens and his Butler squad. I won't give you the whole script because we know how close this team came last year to winning the whole thing against arguably a better Duke team. With a staggering 117-24 record already amassed in 4 years at Butler, Stevens has also become the youngest coach to reach back-to-back National Championship games at the age of 33. I think the edge goes to Butler here because the players emulate and relate more to their younger coach than UConn does with their coach. Stevens is a new-age of coaches that has taken more to statistical analysis than just your X's and O's system. An article I read earlier noted that Stevens and his coaching staff will know where they want to force each UConn player and under what circumstance based on analysis that covers the entire season, highlighted by trends in postseason play.
Therefore, trying to stay as far away from cliche as I can, I think this is the "underdog's" chance to bring home the National Title on Monday night. I think Shelvin Mack will also have his struggles especially if Kemba Walker is the man guarding him, but for the three reasons above, I believe that Butler wins this one in the final minute, 68-64.
-Pat
