Don't get me wrong, the Packers will win the game if and only if Aaron Rodgers is effective through the air. The Steelers have proven all year that their glaring defensive weakness is the short, quick passing game (just look at the New England game if you don't believe me).
That being said, the Packers' offensive line cannot and will not hold up against the ferocious Pittsburgh pass rush if there is no threat of a running game. If the Pittsburgh outside linebackers can pin their ears back and get after Rodgers without having to worry about keeping contain or crashing down on a run Aaron will have a better chance of ending up in the hospital than winning the game.
Its obvious that the Packer's aren't going to be breaking off 10-15 yard gains on the ground on Sunday, but we need to keep the Steelers honest. Contrary to what the back seat quarterbacks on Water St think, a one yard gain in the first quarter has a lot of value. You might be angry when the Packers plow ahead for small 2-3 yard gains in the first quarter, but I'll guarantee that you'll be jumping with joy when Rodgers hits Jennings for 30 yards on a play action pass in the 4th. In my opinion the Packers need to attempt AT LEAST 15 runs on Sunday (not including scrambles by Rodgers). Ideally I would like to see them get to 18-20 rushes.
It seems that the stars are aligned for the Packers to win this game: the Steelers' one major weaknesses is Green Bay's biggest strength and the game is being played in a dome which clearly favors the Packers' more finesse style of play, and . If the Packers' lose this game it will be for one of two reasons:
1) They get overwhelmed by the moment and don't show up - Judging by everything I've seen from the Packers in the past I have no reason to believe that this will happen. However, like we saw in the AFC Championship game, if the Steelers can jump out to a quick lead its damn near impossible to recover. When the Steelers get a lead they run the ball down your throat and control the clock and their defense gets even more aggressive.
2) They went away from what got them there - I've seen it too many times from the Packers to not be worried. McCarthy has a history of turning to the sexy play calls in big moments instead of going with the old standbys that have been working all season. The Packers' can't afford to try and throw the ball 30 yards down the field against this Steelers' defense. We need to stick to our west coast scheme and dink and dunk our way to the Lombardi Trophy.
