Andrew Luck Just Made the Worst Decision of His Life

Charlie posted earlier about why he thinks Luck made the right decision and I just cannot pass up the opportunity to write a rebuttal. 

First of all let's go over the reasons that everyone points to as to why he made the right choice.

1) He wants to finish college: This is just a poor excuse on so many levels.  First of all, I do not understand why people think that going to the NFL automatically means a player cannot finish his degree.  There are numerous professional athletes that take classes and work towards finishing school while they are still in the league.  With the NFL schedule the way it is Luck could potentially be a full time student second semester of next year even if he was an NFL quarterback.  He could train in Palo Alto and take a full course load at Stanford and could have his degree within two years.

2) The NFL Lockout: At first glance I thought that this may be a legit reason for wanting to stay in school.  Obviously the lockout is not a good situation for NFL players.  However, the more I think about it I think that this may be the best time for a rookie to come into the league.  I will break that down more in just a second.

Now lets look at a few reasons why I think he absolutely blew this decision.

1) His stock can only go down:  Luck doesn't quite qualify for my Matt Leinart theory because he actually does have a lot left to accomplish at Stanford, namely a Heisman Trophy and a National Championship.  That being said, I just don't see how another season at Stanford can benefit Luck's draft status.  As a finance major and stock market enthusiast the concept of "buy low, sell high" has been blasted into my brain.  Luck should have been screaming SELL SELL SELL because there is just no way his stock can go up.  The Panthers had essentially already made him the top pick in next April's draft so there is really only one direction he can go.  The situation reminds me a lot of the situation Jake Locker found himself in last year.  Locker was projected to be taken in the top half of the first round but he decided to go back to Washington to play for a team that was supposed to make a run at a Pac 10 title.  As you all know, Locker had a sub par year and Washington struggled all year; and now Locker will find himself being taken somewhere in the 2nd round.

2) The NFL Lockout:  As I mentioned earlier I was tempted to throw this into the pro column for going back to school, but the more I dig into it I think it belongs with the cons.  In any year, deciding to return to college can cost players millions of dollars if their draft status slides; but never like it could this year.  With a new collective bargaining agreement in the works the league is determined to institute a rookie wage scale.  Under the current system Luck would have received close to $50 million guaranteed.  Even if he has another stellar year at Stanford and retains his number 1 overall draft status the rookie wage scale could limit that guaranteed money to something like $10-$20 million.  Luck could have the best season in college football history and still miss out on $30 million.   I just don't understand the concept of leaving that kind of cash on the table.